Monday, September 20, 2010

NBER: Recession ended in June 2009

Recession officially ended in June 2009

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) issued their findings today that the recent economic downturn in the United States was 18 months long and ended in June 2009. The longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression.

The NBER acknowledged the risk of double-dip recession in its statement, but said "The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date."

The committee that made the finding said it "did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity." Rather, it decided that June was when the economy hit bottom, and that it has been slowly but steadily growing since then.
The NBER has been tracking business cycles since World War II.

The NBER typically takes a long time to declare the start and end of recessions, waiting for all the economic data to be revised and finalized and making sure that any change in direction of the economy is long-lasting. It didn't declare that the recession started in December of 2007 until a year later.

In addition to looking at gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic health, the NBER also weighs employment, industrial production, income and sales for determining when the economy changes direction.
While this is interesting from an economic and business cycle perspective, many American's are still feeling the effects of slow recovery.

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